Canadian Government Accelerates Mining Project Approvals, LME Copper Edges Up Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, September 12, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,989/mt overnight, touched a low of $9,970/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward throughout, approaching a high of $10,065/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $10,057/mt, with a gain of 0.45%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest reached 289,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2510 opened at 80,160 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 80,080 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward throughout, approaching a high of 80,540 yuan/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at 80,490 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.51%. Trading volume was 27,000 lots, and open interest was 177,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 11, 2025, Namibia's Green Metals Refining announced an investment of approximately $59 million to build a sulphuric acid plant in Walvis Bay, with an initial annual capacity of 175,000 mt and potential future expansion to 720,000 mt/year. The plant will provide key raw materials for the copper, manganese, and uranium mining industries, reducing import dependence and strengthening the local mining supply chain.

(2) On September 11, 2025, the Canadian government established a major project office to accelerate the approval of mining and energy projects. The list includes the Red Chris copper-gold mine expansion project in British Columbia and the Foran copper mine in Saskatchewan, among others. This move aims to shorten cycles, promote the development of critical resources, and strengthen the strategic position of the mining industry.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 11, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2509 contract were reported at a premium of 50-120 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 85 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 80,110 to 80,240 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper fell from 80,200 yuan/mt and continued to decline, eventually fluctuating between 80,060 and 80,140 yuan/mt, closing the morning session at 80,140 yuan/mt. During the morning trading hours, the inter-month price spread fluctuated around a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt, and the loss on the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to 500 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, Friday, downstream procurement sentiment is expected to recover. As the delivery date approaches, suppliers are unwilling to sell domestic supplies at low prices, and spot premiums are expected to stabilize tomorrow.

(2) Guangdong: On September 11, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at parity to a premium of 60 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 30 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 80-60 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,120 yuan/mt, up 405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 80,020 yuan/mt, up 405 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

(3) Imported copper: On September 11, warrant prices were $51-61/mt, QP September, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $55-65/mt, QP October, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $25-31/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late September.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 11, the futures closing price was 80,140 yuan/mt, up 380 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 85 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,600-73,800 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,821 yuan/mt, up 192 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 970 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, the rebound in copper prices today stimulated secondary copper raw material traders to sell, but high-grade bare bright copper prices generally had to reach 73,900 yuan/mt to be purchased. The transaction situation in the secondary copper raw material market was moderate during the day.

(5) Inventory: On September 10, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 875 mt to 154,175 mt. On September 11, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 902 mt to 20,028 mt.

Price: On the macro front, the US unadjusted CPI annual rate for August recorded 2.9%, hitting a new high since January, higher than expected, but core CPI remained stable, and the job market continued to weaken. Initial jobless claims for the week of September 6 surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years. After the data release, market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts further strengthened, fully pricing in three rate cuts by the end of 2025. The US dollar index pulled back in response, supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals side, imported and domestic supplies are expected to continue arriving next week, and market supply is expected to increase. However, copper prices again standing above the high of 80,000 yuan/mt suppressed downstream purchase willingness, and consumption performance remained sluggish. As of September 11, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across the country decreased by 2,600 mt from Monday to 144,300 mt. Overall, the US dollar remaining under pressure before the US Fed meeting will continue to support copper prices, but limited by slow consumption recovery, copper prices have limited upside room.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]